At The Bottom Of Everything – Conor Oberst, M. Ward & Jim James
Still high from Tuesdays show.
Month: November 2009
I am still over the moon after seeing Monsters of Folk last night at the Orpheum. So many great songs back to back. I loved the Conor Oberst & M. Ward duo singing “Smoke Without Fire” (this video is from a different show).
Jim James blew us away and so did M. Ward last night. Conor Oberst has a special place in my soul. It was an awesome show.
(Source: https://www.youtube.com/)
Dream – Sasha Yatchenko
On Sunday, Lauren and I and the kids were in Harvard Sq for dinner. After dinner we were walking around and we saw this young woman singing her heart out on the street with a keyboard. My girls ended up saying hi to her and we bought her CD. There is a lot of Regina Spektor in her voice.
Do DVR users watch ads ?
Like many folks, we’ve had a DVR for over 10 years in our house.
The first DVRs that came from WebTV Networks and then TiVo brought us a new user interface to the old set top box guide.
In addition to a new UI, the DVR brought something else. As I wrote last week the DVR was more than just a glorified VCR. It was something completely new and refreshing. Beyond season events or one click recording, I could actually pause live tv. Or I could go back 30 seconds. Or I could record a show and then start watching the show 25 minutes later so I could catch up in real time by skipping all of the ads.
The only live stuff we watch is sports like the World Series that is going on at the moment. Other than live sports, we watch everything from disk [actually live content is also buffered on the disk but I digress :) ] – and we skip the ads entirely. Lauren and I actually compare how well we can time the fast forward button with the end of the commercial break.
These days over 30 million US households have a DVR. That DVR is either purchased at retail (TiVo) or users lease a DVR from their satellite/telco/cable operator. Consumer pay extra for our DVRs because the value prop is clear.
This Sunday, the New York Times had an article that caught my eye – DVR, Once TV’s Mortal Foe, Helps Ratings. In the story, Nielsen says that 46% of DVR owners watch commercials during playback.
That is in contrast with TiVo’s recent research which states that 84% of commercials aren’t watched. There is another important data point shared in that report:
“As we see every month, there is little correlation between the top rated programs and top viewed commercials”
Essentially, if you are buying TV ads on top tier shows like LOST, CSI and 30 Rock, you are overpaying since +80% of those ads are being skipped entirely in the 30million households with a DVR. And that number is only growing.
Many will remind me that the TV industry is huge with big ad dollars, a proven business model and great content. I agree – but it seems like traditional monetization models need to evolve. And even for live television (where I’m forced to watch the ads), well, the ads aren’t relevant or targeted. How many times did Fox show me the same Chevy ad during the ALCS and World Series. They could show it to me another 100x and I’m still not buying a Chevy.
At some point the set top box needs smarter software. It needs to tell the content owner what’s going on. It needs to tell the advertiser what’s going on. And it needs to keep the users needs front and center.
Not surprisingly, I think the web (mobile and PC) are going to be a huge part of the solution. Two way networks, rich analytics, modern advertising platforms, search, discovery and social nets. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Exit Strategy
When I meet an entrepreneur for the first time I like having a conversation about the idea or see the product (or prototype) in action or even a “chalk talk” for those of us that are more visually inclined.
I’m generally not a fan of slides, especially if it’s an early stage company.
But if the founder wants to use slides then I usually go along. Founders should use whatever tools they feel most comfortable.
The one thing I am allergic to is when a founder includes a slide that says “Exit Strategy” and then has a few bullets that says “IPO or sell company to company a, b or c.”
Oy.
An early stage company should be thinking about how to create something great and how they want to get there. How to build value. Not think about exits.
Now most VCs that I know feel the same way about that dreaded slide. But there is a topic where I’ve seen disagreement amongst successful VCs related to the concept of exits when considering an early stage investment. Some VCs will think about who might be the potential buyers of the company.
They do this analysis upfront because most companies never go public. So they want to know if there could be multiple buyers of a company someday. If there aren’t any potential buyers then they it might impact the VCs decision.
I don’t see the world that way.
If you build a great company then you don’t have to worry about exits because you will have many options (e.g. public, get profitable & stay private, secondary offering, sell the company).
I believe there have been many exits where the actual buyer wouldn’t have been on any list at the time the initial venture investment.
This is just speculation on my part but at the time of the initial investment in the following companies who would have guessed the ultimate buyer:
-Flip Video (Cisco)
-Danger Research (Microsoft)
-Daily Candy (Comcast)
-Sling (Echostar)
-StumbleUpon (eBay)
The list goes on.
Yes, you can imagine the strategic rationale for those deals. But not on day 1 of the venture investment. The world just moves too fast to try and predict this stuff. And it’s not the most important question anyway.
We would all agree, the real question is whether a particular team & product can make something special.
Update: A few folks have reblogged this post and disagreed with me. To be clear, I never said exits aren’t important. I just don’t believe it should be something founders or VCs should think about at the start.
Roll Away Your Stone – Mumford and Sons
David Noel turned me on to this band a month ago and they’ve been on heavy rotation since.
